Estimating the causal effect of Sustainable Agriculture Intensification adoption on agricultural land expansion in Katete district of Zambia: An Endogenous Switching Regression analysis

Abstract

Forest land cover is declining at an alarming rate in Zambia and poses a threat to the elimination of major ecosystem services. Identification of sustainable agricultural intensification (SAI) practices presents an opportunity to reduce pressure on forest land resources. The objective of this study was to estimate the causal effect relationship between SAI practices adoption and farmland expansion using the Endogenous Switching Regression model. A cross-sectional survey conducted in 2020/21 season using a random sample of 300 farm households was used to assess the effect of SAI practices adoption on farmland expansion. The causal impact estimation reveals that the adoption of SAI practices reduced expected land expansion on one hand, while the opposite is true for the non-adoption of SAI practices. The findings also indicate that increasing the area under cropping, farmer affiliation to farmer associations, and participation in agricultural extension training are positive precursors to increasing the probability of adopting SAI practices at the farm level. Additionally, the more educated a farmer is, coupled with older age reduces the probability of engaging in farmland expansion. These two variables point to the role and importance of increased farming experience and knowledge in mitigating agricultural farmland expansion. This finding suggests that the mitigation of agricultural productivity challenges through technology dissemination should be coupled with farmer education. The results from this study, therefore, generally confirm the potential positive impact of SAI technology adoption on reducing agricultural farmland expansion among smallholder farmers which translates into increased conservation of natural resources, especially forests.