Spatial analysis of rural out-migration and land use change: A case of Western Uganda

Abstract

This study evaluates the relation between rural-urban migration and land use changes at origin. The analysis was based on households (1015) data on their social and economic characteristics, which was used to map the spatial patterns of rural out-migration. Next, on the basis of Google-Earth imagery for 71427 ha and ground truthing, land use changes for the period 2000-2021 were assessed using a grid-based approach. The results revealed that rural areas with relatively high levels of out-migrants underwent strong intensification of land use with conversion of natural land covers to plantation forests, cropland and built-up land. This land use intensification wasn’t in the communities with low out-migration levels. The relation was still significant if controlled for distance to the urban areas and population density level. From the study findings, we recommend that policy considerations for rural development in the study area and similar rural areas should integrate the association effects of migration on land use.